>> CSIRO Online Web Site CSIRO spacer
  CSIRO Home   bar   Contact Us   bar   Site Map   bar   SEARCH  
spacer
CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems
  HOME     NEWS & INFORMATION     RESEARCH     CLIENT SERVICES     ABOUT US  

Resource Futures
Resource Futures Home
Program Contacts

 

 

 

spacer

Resource Futures

Future Dilemmas

Options to 2050 for Australia's population, technology, resources and environment

A CSIRO technical report by Barney Foran and Franzi Poldy, Resource Futures Program, CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems

Accessing the Report

There are two documents available for download, both in Adobe Acrobat pdf format. If you are unable to access or read this file format, please contact the Resource Futures Program at CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems.
cse.resfutures@csiro.au.

Please Note: if you have arranged for a printed copy to be posted, PLEASE ALLOW 10 DAYS FOR DELIVERY.

A 61 page summary document, Dilemmas Distilled: A Summary and Guide to the CSIRO Technical Report, can be downloaded from the CSE Web site.
Please Note
: Printed copies of this summary document are being distributed through the Commonwealth Department of Immigration and Multicultural and Indigenous Affairs (DIMIA).

Bullet Dilemmas Distilled (61 page summary document)
pdf PDF Document (343Kb)

The full 337 page report, Future Dilemmas: Options to 2050 for Australia's population, technology, resources and environment, can be downloaded from the CSE Web site. Alternatively, individual chapters can be downloaded as required.
Printed copies of the report can be obtained by contacting the Resource Futures Program at CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems for information.
cse.resfutures@csiro.au.

Bullet Future Dilemmas (337 page report)
pdfPDF Document (2.0Mb)

Future Dilemmas Report in Separate Chapters:

Bullet Future Dilemmas Contents and Forewords (12 pages)
pdfPDF Document (184Kb)

Bullet Future Dilemmas Executive Summary (6 pages)
pdfPDF Document (176Kb)

Bullet Future Dilemmas Chapter 1:
Modelling physical realities (28 pages)
pdfPDF Document (463Kb)

Bullet Future Dilemmas Chapter 2:
People and their needs (34 pages)
pdfPDF Document (317Kb)

Bullet Future Dilemmas Chapter 3:
The urban environment (44 pages)
pdfPDF Document (390Kb)

Bullet Future Dilemmas Chapter 4:
Natural resources and environment (44 pages)
pdfPDF Document (394Kb)

Bullet Future Dilemmas Chapter 5:
The future of energy (35 pages)
pdfPDF Document (353Kb)

Bullet Future Dilemmas Chapter 6:
The future of water (30 pages)
pdfPDF Document (313Kb)

Bullet Future Dilemmas Chapter 7:
Crosscutting issues and conclusions (41 pages)
pdfPDF Document (328Kb)

Bullet Future Dilemmas Chapter 8: Overview of the report by the Exeternal Reference Group (25 pages)
pdfPDF Document (234Kb)

Bullet Future Dilemmas Appendices (58 pages)
pdfPDF Document (506Kb)


About the Report

What impact will the size of Australia's future population have on the environment, the physical economy, the national infrastructure and our quality of life?

To gain insights into what the future might hold for Australia, researchers at CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems, in collaboration with whatIf? Technologies Inc., developed the Australian Stocks and Flows Framework (ASFF)1, a unique tool that provides new capabilities for understanding and modelling the dynamics of the Australian economy in physical terms.

Future Dilemmas is a technical report that encapsulates the results of this research, which was commissioned by the Commonwealth Department of Immigration and Multicultural and Indigenous Affairs (DIMIA).

It explores the future effect of three population/immigration scenarios on infrastructure, resources and the environment out to the year 2050.

  • The first scenario considers what would happen if the net immigration rate was zero persons a year (described as the low scenario in the report).
  • The second considers what happens if the rate was 70 000 a year (the current policy setting, and described as the medium scenario).
  • The third examines the consequences of an immigration rate set at two thirds of one percent (0.67%) of the current population per year (described here as the high scenario).

The low scenario (zero immigration) represents the policy position of some environment groups. Based on current population growth, it would see a domestic population of 20 million by 2050. The medium scenario gives a population of 25 million by 2050. The high scenario (0.67% growth pa) is a position advocated by many business interests. It gives us 32 million people by 2050.

Future Dilemmas explores the consequences of these three scenarios for people, urban infrastructure, the natural environment, energy, water and a broad range of other issues.

Future Dilemmas: options to 2050 for Australia's population, technology, resources and environment was officially launched on Thursday 7 November 2002 by the Hon Philip Ruddock, Minister for Immigration and Multicultural and Indigenous Affairs.


1 ASFF was designed and implemented by a project team that included Robert Hoffman and Bert McInnis, principals of whatIf? Technologies Inc. (formerly Robbert Associates Ltd), of Ottawa, Canada. ASFF is implemented using the whatIf? suite of modelling tools developed and distributed by whatIf? Technologies.

Enquiries

Please send all enquries to CSE Resource Futures.
cse.resfutures@csiro.au.



 

 

CSIRO