Historical analysis

As input to the design of proposals for changes to policies, laws and administration we performed an historical analysis of how the Western Division evolved to its current state (Abel and Langston in prep (PDF 343Kb)). It shows the origins of land use conflicts, and the reasons for declines in biodiversity, incomes, services and population. It explains why the legal and administrative system is so cumbersome and inappropriate for the challenges the region now faces, and why the region lacks the capacity to adapt to impending global economic and climatic changes. Our project was designed to increase that adaptive capacity through changes in land use, laws, policies and administration.

Land use visions

Our stakeholders and researchers generated maps of the suitability of the Western Division for 55 land uses. Around 15 of these land uses are fairly well established. The rest are new or now occupy very small areas. About 93% of the region is under leasehold pastoralism, so it may seem that switching to new land uses will be hard. However, our stakeholders have shown that around 80 percent of actual and potential land uses are mutually compatible. Multiple land use therefore has great potential for attracting capital, increasing the diversity of income sources, reducing financial and ecological risks, and resolving land use conflicts.

>>> Land use compatibility matrix (PDF 25 Kb) >>> Stakeholders' land use index.

Scenarios of sustainable land use

Our five scenarios for the Western Division to 2025 (Third Milestone report March 2000) showed that there is scope for enhancing employment and incomes through diversification of land uses, and that this need not result in significant loss of soils. Biodiversity conservation could be enhanced through synergies with tourism, conservation and agro-pastoral sectors. Shrub density will continue to increase under any scenario, but this will have the benefit of storing carbon. Atmospheric change may enhance cropping potential, thus agro-pastoral incomes, but this would put more biodiversity at risk.

Proposed changes to laws, policies and administration

Our policy makers have developed five portfolios of proposals for changing laws and polices. Each portfolio addresses the interests of one stakeholder group. A summary of these proposals with links to the full set of recommendations are available.